Season Preview 2013

So the 2013 season is almost upon us and us F1 fans are gearing up for potentially a very exciting season, this post will update you on the rule changes, team changes, and my personal view on the battle for supremacy.

The Rules

2013 is a season of evolution rather than revolution.  The 2014 season is hotly anticipated with V6 "green" engines, and a raft of aerodynamic changes. In comparison 2013 sees little change, and should, hopefully create tight racing as a result. However there are still a few changes. Firstly DDRS (double DRS) has been banned, although already teams are working round this with "passive" DRS systems. Secondly vanity panels have been allowed, this enables teams to get rid of the ugly stepped noses of last year with a thin piece of carbon fibre, most teams have made use of this. Thirdly DRS usage has been limited to only the DRS zones, instead of previously allowing cars to use it all circuit round in practice and qualifying. There are other rules, however they are more technical than this blogger likes to go. As a side note, as Pirelli did last year, the 2012 medium tyre is becoming this years hard, to prevent teams moving towards long pit strategies. There are also new colours  for the tyres - red for super-soft, yellow for soft, white for medium and silver for hard.

Driver and Team Changes

This year will only feature 11 teams, due to the withdrawal of Hispania at the end of last year. There are rumours of a potential 12th team for 2014, but for the moment that is all they are, rumours.
The main moves of the driver market are as follows:

• Lewis Hamilton to Mercedes has undoubtedly the created the most excitement amongst fans and pundits alike. Whether Mercedes can give him the car to challenge is the real question. He replaces retired 7-time world champion Michael Schumacher.
• Sergio Perez has moved to replace him at McLaren, mid-season when this was announced it seemed a good move after 3 podiums for the Mexican. However no points since the announcement leaves questions to be answered.
• It's all change at Sauber, with Perez moving to McLaren, Sauber also decided to ditch the attacking Kamui Kobayashi. 2013 will see Nico Hulkenberg lead the team, after a move from rivals Force India, and he will partner rookie Esteban Gutierrez, following his third place in GP2 last year.
• Force India's replacement for Hulkenberg is their ex-driver Adrian Sutil, after beating Jules Bianchi in a shootout to be di Resta's team mate.
• Valteri Bottas was always likely to drive for Williams this season following lots of drives in practice sessions, Williams choosing to axe consistent pointscorer Bruno Senna rather than the faster but more erratic Maldonado.
• It's also all change at Caterham, where Charles Pic joins from Marussia after an impressive debut season. Joining him is enthusiastic Giedo van der Garde, after many years as test driver for Super Aguri, Spyker and Caterham. These two replace the likeable pair of Heikki Kovalainen and Vitaly Petrov.
• Finally Marussia have also moved for youth, Pic departing for Caterham and Timo Glock's departure has created two seats. Wealthy Brit Max Chilton has been confirmed for a while, it was thought he would partner Luiz Razia, but his sponsor's failure to raise the money they promised enabled rookie Jules Bianchi to take the seat at the last moment, potentially bringing Ferrari engines for 2014.

Team Previews

Red Bull

Three constructors titles on the trot, three drivers titles on the trot, surely Red Bull are overwhelming favourites? Amazingly not, due to little regulation change Newey can't work his magic as well as normal with the car, and last season McLaren arguably had the faster car. Despite this they will definitely be up the front and as normal hid their pace in pre-season. With Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber at the helm they can claim to have the strongest driver line up, and will hope to show it. It's likely that the alternator will not plague them as much as it did last season, so combining Vettel's speed, Newey's design and reliability should prove a fearsome connection.
Predictions:
WCC: 1st
Vettel: 2nd
Webber: 6th

Ferrari

Fernando Alonso

After building an awful car for the beginning of 2012, Ferrari developed well and kept the majestic Fernando Alonso in with a chance until the very end. They built arguably the 4th best car, and were lucky to have Alonso taking an opportunistic win in Malaysia before giving the ability to fight Red Bull. This season they begin on a much more stable footing, and should be a threat all season. The resurgence of Felipe Massa hopefully means a return to form of the 2008 runner up. The test driver signing of Pedro de la Rosa to improve their simulator is potentially crucial, and with a fully operational wind tunnel there will be no excuses for Stefano Domenicali this year, and they have to compete.
Predictions:
WCC: 2nd
Alonso: 1st
Massa: 8th

McLaren

McLaren will view 2012 as a disappointment. With 6 wins split between two World Champions they should have been challenging for both titles, instead they came 3rd in the constructors and 4th and 5th in the drivers. Poor reliability cost Lewis Hamilton many a point, and Jenson Button's mid-season disaster proved to be the end of their hopes. This will be particularly bitter as they probably had the fastest car for the majority of the season. This season they are almost certainly weaker as a result of Hamilton's departure and much will be expected of Sergio Perez. Despite all this, McLaren nearly always build a race-winning car and in Button they have a former world champion so they should still challenge.
Predictions:
WCC: 4th
Button: 3rd
Perez: 10th

Lotus

The surprise package of 2012 will look to this season as a chance for more wins. The 2012 season proved to be a great one for the ex-Renault team, the hiring of ex-Champion Kimi Raikkonen proved a masterstroke, delivering performances, comedy and an ice-cool demeanour all at once. Alongside him sits the very quick Romain Grosjean, who gained a reputation as a crasher, but as I mention in previous posts, he will lose this when he shows his race-winning potential he demonstrated in Bahrain and Valencia last season. They should continue to impress this season.
Predictions:
WCC: 3rd
Raikkonen: 4th
Grosjean: 7th

Mercedes:

A team that has a lot to deliver in 2013. After finally making the breakthrough in China for their first win it looked like 2012 could be their year, however they didn't fulfil that potential and struggled to keep up with development. Mercedes have acted decisively, out go Schumacher, Haug and in come Hamilton, Lauda and for next year Paddy Lowe, meaning even Ross Brawn's place is under threat. The capture of Lewis Hamilton has undoubtedly risen spirits at Mercedes, who can now claim to have one of the "big three" (the other two being Vettel and Alonso). However, I think 2013 will not be their year, but they could be a big threat in 2014.
Predictions:
WCC: 5th
Rosberg: 9th
Hamilton: 5th

Sauber

Esteban Gutierrez

Sauber's four podiums in 2012 gives them reason for encouragement for this season. Perez proved on three occasion that the car was ready to challenge for wins, while Kobayashi took an emotional podium in Japan. This has enabled them to poach the highly-rated Nico Hulkenberg from rivals Force India. Led by F1's only female team principal Monisha Kaltenborn, Sauber will feel they have a good chance at more podiums this year. Lots is expected of rookie Esteban Gutierrez, who brings with him significant sponsorship, but also a speed, his performance could be crucial in the midfield battle this season.
Predictions:
WCC: 7th
Hulkenberg: 11th
Gutierrez: 16th

Force India

Despite a record points haul for the Silverstone based team, they dropped behind Sauber in the constructors, highlighting how tight in the midfield. A very up and down 2012 with the highlight being Hulkenberg's excellent drive in Brazil, they will hope for more consistency this year. However, there may be problems behind the scenes as both team owner Vijay Mallya and major sponsors Sahara have financial issues, although they insist it doesn't effect the team. Despite this, both Jules Bianchi and Adrian Sutil had to show they had large sponsorship to give them a shot at driving for them, Sutil winning the shoot-out. This is also a crucial season for Paul di Resta, who, despite talking himself up, hasn't beaten a team-mate yet.
Predictions:
WCC: 8th
di Resta: 15th
Sutil: 14th

Williams

Valtteri Bottas

Williams finally a win drought in 2012 that stretched back to the great Juan Pablo Montoya in 2004. Back then it was unthinkable that it would be 8 years before their next victory, F1's third most successful team. In 2012 Williams finally built another quality car. Unfortunately it wasn't properly exploited by their drivers. Maldonado took a brilliant win in Spain, but was involved in too many crashes, and finished in the points only 5 times. By contrast his team-mate finished in the points 10 times, but it was only enough for 8th in the constructors championship. Williams have kept the erratic Maldonado (and his huge Venezuelan backing) and have brought in exciting Finn Valtteri Bottas. After impressing in Friday practices, this is his chance to make a mark. I think Williams will build another good car, but how well it is driven is another question.
Predictions:
WCC: 6th
Maldonado: 13th
Bottas: 12th

Toro Rosso

This is Toro Rosso's second season with drivers Ricciardo and Vergne, and judging by the way he handled their predecessors Buemi and Algeursuari, you feel they have to do well this season. Ricciardo generally impressed more in 2012, but Vergne scored more points and some will argue that's all that counts. The arrival of James Key as technical director could see them move forward, but all too regularly they find themselves just off the midfield runners. Red Bull's sister team will hope that this year they can return to form this season, however I think they may struggle again, and look to 2014 earlier than most.
Predictions:
WCC: 9th
Vergne: 18th
Ricciardo: 17th

Caterham

Despite being referred to as "the new teams", Caterham are now entering their fourth season of F1, and look no closer to being in the points than before. Only a manic Brazilian GP and a stellar drive from Vitaly Petrov kept them in 10th place in the constructors, and that was with Marussia not having KERS. This season they have ditched Heikki Kovalainen and the aforementioned Petrov and signed Pic from Marussia, and Giedo van der Garde. Now had either of them been partnering Kovalainen you could argue it is a strong line-up. However they aren't and it's left to young Charles Pic to lead the team, a step to far in my opinion. The same regulations as last year should help them move closer to the pack, but the signs aren't looking good.
Predictions:
WCC: 11th
Pic: 20th
van der Garde: 21st

Marussia

Jules Bianchi

Despite the fact they once again finished behind Caterham last season, many pundits are predicting potentially good things from the ex-Virgin team. Having also ditched their experienced driver, Marussia's line-up are both rookies. Briton Max Chilton has been criticised by some of buying his way into F1. Indeed his GP2 record is average at best and his father owned the team, and is very wealthy. Despite this, other drivers have impressed despite average records, his predecessor Charles Pic an example, Kamui Kobayashi another. However, in my opinion the signing of Jules Bianchi is the crucial one. Heavily supported by Ferrari he was very close to the Force India seat, after impressing throughout his young career, along with KERS, Bianchi could prove the difference for 10th place, and may even score the team's first points.
Predictions:
WCC: 10th
Bianchi: 19th
Chilton: 22nd


Thanks for reading!

The Next Generation - Nico Hülkenberg

At 25, Hülkenberg may seem a bit of stretch to say he's the "next generation", especially considering he is only 1 month younger than double World Champion Sebastian Vettel, however Vettel is, in my opinion, the exception the rule that states drivers don't peak until they are late 20s-early 30s.

Nico had one of the most successful career progressions to F1 in recent history. He dominated the European Formula BMW in 2005, practically single-handedly won the A1 GP series for Germany, taking a staggering 9 wins in his rookie year. He moved to the German F3 series, finishing 5th earning a drive in the full F3 Euro Series. In 2007 he finished 5th, before comprehensively destroying the field in 2008 - taking almost double the points of the runner up. Other winners of this prestigious series include Lewis Hamilton and Paul di Resta, with Vettel finishing as a runner up. This obviously earned the attraction higher up the motor sport ladder, and he won a GP2 drive with ART GP.

A disappointing opening round was soon forgotten, as he became the first man in 3 years to win both the feature and sprint race, and became one of only two drivers to win every point on offer (two wins plus pole and fastest lap). He went on to dominate the series and wrapped up the title with a round to spare, and broke the 100 point barrier in the final round. He crushed team mate Pastor Maldanado 100-36, almost 3 times as many points, an astonishing feat considering he would eventually be replaced by Maldonado and Maldonado would in fact secure a F1 race win, something which has still eluded Hülkenberg.

In 2010, he produced a very solid rookie season, struggling at the beginning of the year he was matching and even beating his much more experienced team-mate Rubens Barrichello. The stand out moment of the year by a long way for Hülkenberg was obviously his outstanding pole position in Brazil, where he qualified over a second ahead of the man in 2nd. It was a stunning lap, and he was fast enough for pole in both of his laps - dismissing claims that he was only on pole due to clever timing. Despite this he was dropped for the much wealthier Maldonado.

A year of testing for Force India in 2011 won him the seat for this year at the expense of countryman Adrian Sutil. Again Hulkenberg started slowly, but since the European Grand Prix he has finished in the points 5 times, with memorable drives to 4th in Spa and most recently to 6th in Korea, where he also pulled off a remarkable double overtake on Hamilton and Grosjean.  As things stand he is ahead of Paul di Resta by a point, but recent drives suggest he could extend that gap by the end of the season.

Rumours were Ferrari were interested in him for 2013, but stuck with Massa, and he looks to have secured a deal to Sauber for the next year, a potentially shrewd move considering Vijay Mallya's predicament. He should look to push on and potentially replace either Massa or move into Red Bull in 2014. A future winner? Most definitely. A future champion? In my opinion the sky is the limit for this boy.

The Next Generation - Antonio Felix da Costa

The man who has lit up the Renault World Series (WSR), is a man who finished the season in 4th. Surprised? Read on.

After solid performances in karting (including some national championships in Portugal), he earned a place in Formula Renault, and won the series NEC (Northern European Cup) by 2009. He has also enjoyed success in this years GP3, success that prompted Red Bull to bring him into their young driver programme, potentially seen as a risky move given their reputation for discarding drivers as quickly as they sign them. However, it seems unlikely after some stellar performances in the WSR this season.

Brought in to replace ex-Red Bull young driver programme Lewis Williamson, the season was already 5 races into its stride, this may have played into da Costa's hands as he would have been under little pressure to fight for the championship and could just drive the best he could. Eventual winner Robin Frijns  had already scored 61 points by the time da Costa arrived. Da Costa ended up finishing a mere 29 points adrift.

An average start to his campaign, saw him score 3 times in the next 5 races, matching vastly more experience team-mate Alexander Rossi. However in the final 7 races da Costa outscored everyone, taking 6 podiums, of which 4 were wins! He didn't finish outside the top 4 and completely destroyed his teammate and scored almost 3 times as many points as Rossi. He impressed most in his double podium in France, taking victory in a very difficult, rain-hit Grand Prix.

Due to his Red Bull connections, it is likely we will see this man in an F1 car again very soon (having previously tested for Force India). This is made more likely by the fact the WSR is now regarded as equal to GP2 in terms of quality (Jules Bianchi and Sam Bird have won in both series, and they finished 2nd and 3rd in the championship).

Race winner potential? Almost certainly. World Champion contender? Given the right car, this man is going the right way about it.

The Next Generation - Sergio Perez

The obvious choice. At only 22, he is easily the youngest driver to be in the big three (Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull) for next season, and as such has a great chance so early in his career to prove himself as the leader of the next generation.

Perez impressed during karting, regularly being the youngest in the field and finishing on the podium, and then destroyed the formula three (national class - older chassis) field in 2007, finishing all but two races on the podium, and two thirds of the Grand Prix, and finished 4th in the international class. After gaining some experience in GP2 Asia, Perez started GP2 proper and finished the season 12th overall, with 2 podiums to his name, narrowly beating his team mate. In only his second season he finished 2nd overall, only behind the much more experience Pastor Maldanado, and comfortably ahead of the chasing pack, with 5 wins and 2 additional podiums to his name, and he secured a drive with Sauber for the next season of F1.

Now this is where it gets interesting, in only his first race he finished in the points, and was the only driver to have only one stop (something which became a speciality of his), however the Saubers were disqualified over a technicality, he eventually scored his  first points in race 5 in Spain, beating his team mate home to finish 9th. After a scary crash in Monaco, the rest of his season was solid, if unspectacular, which is good for a début season, and eventually finished 16th in the driver's standing, in what was officially the 7th fastest car, showing perhaps a bit of disappointment for the young Mexican, who ended up comprehensively beaten by his more experience team-mate Kamui Kobayashi.

However, if there was a tinge of regret about his first season, he put it behind him with a stellar performance so far this season. Perez has scored in 7 of the 16 races so far, including 3 excellent podiums. A great ability in the wet shone through when he finished 2nd behind Alonso in a changeable Malaysian Grand Prix, and he followed that with podiums in Canada and Monza. However, in both these races a better strategy than those around him seem to help him more than his talent. In Canada, dodgy strategy for Alonso and Vettel cost them, and in Monza a poor qualifying performance meant a great strategy call gave him an excellent end to the race.

Perez has been given a very good chance to perform to show off his talent with a drive at McLaren for 2013, but personally I have my doubts. He seems very inconsistent, and his recent performances in Japan and Korea shows he still has much to learn. A future winner? Undoubtedly. A future champion? I wouldn't think so. Perez needs to develop more abilities than just the ability to preserve his tyres.

The Next Generation?

At the moment, F1 is experiencing a 'golden age' of drivers. We have 6 world champions on the grid! (Schumacher, Alonso, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Button and Vettel), we also have another 5 Grand Prix winners, with many of the rest experiencing podiums, clearly this is a good time for F1.

However, in 5 years time where will we be? Schumacher will be long gone, as will Raikkonen and probably Button, Alonso may have retired as well. This leaves us with just Vettel and Hamilton, but who are the young guns who will challenge them? This will be a series of posts focussing on the next generation of drivers and champions, including some in the sport, and others from other series.

Romain Grosjean

The topic of conversation for most current F1 viewers is the issue of Romain Grosjean, or as I like to call it "a massive overreaction".

"My thoughts are that, again, he cannot use his mind - even in qualifying. He could've caused a big accident. He's paying for it and he doesn't understand that." Felipe Massa


“This guy will never learn if they don’t do something, because he is a very dangerous driver and he can hurt someone.”Sergio Perez



Firstly some facts, so far this season Romain has been involved in no less than 6 first lap incidents - and one more second lap incident. Clearly this is too much, and Romain payed the penalty for his error of judgement in Spa with a one race ban for Monza - Jerome D'Ambrosio taking his place. At the time is was considered harsh but fair, not only was he a repeat offender, but the incident could have been much more serious, especially involving Alonso's head. He sat out a race and then had a solid, quiet and unspectacular race in Singapore, and it was felt he had learnt his lesson. Fast-forward two weeks and he is involved in another crash, this time with Mark Webber which effectively ended his chance of major points. There is uproar, calls for more race bans, perhaps longer, or even more extreme  a complete ban from F1.

This is completely ridiculous standpoint. Take Pastor Maldanado for example, only 5 races ago people were asking for his exclusion, a bit of TLC, some coaching from Alex Wurz and the fact Grosjean has the limelight has led to some strong performance, beginning to remind us of his form in Spain. Even last season, Lewis Hamilton hogged the limelight, with numerous high profile crashes with Felipe Massa. This season Hamilton has arguably been perfect regarding race conduct (the less said about off-track troubles the better). Those calling for Grosjean's head should look to these examples and see that it is not that big a problem. There's already an offer from Sir Jackie Stewart for coaching, and some claim his most recent crash was a result of trying to avoid Perez, and getting unlucky.

To conclude, banning Grosjean would be a big overreaction. Just wait until the next hothead and all will be forgotten.

Also, Perez was referring to Maldanado and Massa was referring to Hamilton. See, easily forgotten.

Hamilton to Mercedes/Perez to Sauber

This is a very obvious first topic to talk about, but its the story dominating the news at the moment and signals a huge shift in F1. This is the first time since 2009 when Alonso confirmed he was moving to Ferrari and Button moved to McLaren that there have been any big movers. There are a number of reasons why this is significant.

 Lewis Hamilton is widely regarded as one of the 'Big Three' comprising of himself, Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel. Indeed, he vies only with Vettel (and Usain Bolt) for the title of fastest man in the world. Surely a member of such an elite club would have his pick of the drives amongst the top teams, namely Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull. Thus it seems baffling that he ends up at Mercedes, currently the 5th fastest team in the sport, however when you consider the fact that clearly, Hamilton's relationship with McLaren has soured somewhat, due to many factors, leaving him with two options Red Bull and Ferrari. Many sources have said that Hamilton's agent approached both, Red Bull stuck with Webber and Alonso vetoed his move to Ferrari (apparently). Suddenly Mercedes seem more viable. Take into account Brawn, regulation changes in 2014 and probably a whole lot of freedom sponsorship wise, Hamilton's move is looking better. I think that somewhere in his mind Hamilton thinks a new Schumacher-esque product could come of it.

Schumacher, was widely regarded as one the best. Hamilton is widely regarded as one of the best.
Ferrari were in the doldrums but potentially had huge financial backing. Mercedes are in the doldrums, but could receive huge financial backing.
Ross Brawn. Ross Brawn.

When Schumacher moved a 'dream team' of  5 built up. Schumacher/Brawn/Rory Byrne/Jean Todt/Luca di Montezemolo. Hamilton has but two, himself and Brawn.

As such I believe that Hamilton has made the incorrect decision, but time will tell.

However, what I think the most exciting development is Perez's move to McLaren to fill his shoes. This move has been somewhat ignored. However this move could have much more short-term significance. It is very hard to see a race-winning car in Mercedes next season. However McLaren will almost certainly produce one, and one that Perez will drive. Perez has shone this season for Sauber and secured three magnificent podiums, and deserves the chance in my opinion. Alongside probably the perfect team mate for him, Jenson Button they will make a formidable duo. If Button can reproduce his 2011 form (or 2012 form without the middle bit) McLaren still have a very strong lead driver, in Perez they have a young gun who will definitely be a WDC. This is arguably stronger than great lead driver (Alonso, Vettel) and elder statesman capable on his day (Webber, Massa). I predict good things for McLaren next season. Very good things indeed.

Thanks for reading :) I hope this made some sort of sense