The championships have been decided, and it seems very likely that Sebastian Vettel will win his ninth GP in a row. Despite this I look forward to the Brazilian GP, mainly due to the fact that it very rarely fails to deliver an exciting GP. Last year, Alonso and Vettel had a fantastic battle for the championship, 2010 had Hulkenberg's outstanding pole position lap and kept 4 drivers in contention for the title, Button sealed the title in 2009 following a great fight up the field, Hamilton won the title on the final corner in 2008, and lost it by a point in 2007 thanks to the Brazilian Grand Prix. It's a fantastic track and a worthy season finale.
Now, while bored one afternoon, I decided to try and predict the results of this GP using maths (and excel). I combined the average team an driver form over the last 5 GPs, with the average team and driver performance at this track over the last 3 years. For example, let's take Sebastian Vettel.
Average finishing position over the last 5 GPs (Korea, Japan, India, Abu Dhabi and USA) - 1
Average finishing position over the last 3 Brazilian GPs - 3
Average finishing position of the Red Bull over the last 5 GPs - 1.66667
Average finishing position of the Red Bull over the last 3 Brazilian GPs - 2.666667
After I've added various weightings to these averages, Vettel comes out as being predicted to finish 1.83333th, which is clearly nonsense. So I did it for all the drivers and put them in order, and, unsurprisingly, Vettel is predicted to finish 1st.
However, to create these ratings, I didn't include failing to finish, as it would massively skew the ratings, instead I made a % chance to retire. To do this I used retirements by the driver and team over the last 5 GPs, retirements by the team and driver over the last 3 Brazilian GPs, and the average rate of retirement over the last 3 Brazilian GPs. Again let's take Vettel.
Percentage of races where Vettel retired in the last 5 GPs - 0%
Percentage of races where Vettel retired in the last 3 Brazilian GPs - 0%
Percentage of races where a Red Bull retired in the last 5 GPs - 20%
Percentage of races where a Red Bull retired in the last 3 Brazilian GPs - 0%
Average retirement rate* at the last 3 GPs - 13%
*Retirement rate means what percentage of drivers retire, on average, from this GP.
Overall, again with different weightings assigned, Vettel has a retirement chance of 8%.
Combining this altogether created this prediction. This is primarily for a dry race, as wet races are notoriously more unpredictable.
|
Position
|
Driver
|
Chance of
retirement
|
|
1st
|
Sebastian Vettel
|
8%
|
|
2nd
|
Mark Webber
|
19%
|
|
3rd
|
Romain Grosjean
|
21%
|
|
4th
|
Fernando Alonso
|
2%
|
|
5th
|
Lewis Hamilton
|
20%
|
|
6th
|
Nico Rosberg
|
5%
|
|
7th
|
Felipe Massa
|
2%
|
|
8th
|
Jenson Button
|
7%
|
|
9th
|
Nico Hulkenberg
|
4%
|
|
10th
|
Sergio Perez
|
14%
|
|
11th
|
Paul di Resta
|
25%
|
|
12th
|
Adrian Sutil
|
18%
|
|
13th
|
Esteban Gutierrez
|
5%
|
|
14th
|
Heikki Kovalainen
|
7%
|
|
15th
|
Jean-Eric Vergne
|
2%
|
|
16th
|
Daniel Ricciardo
|
2%
|
|
17th
|
Valtteri Bottas
|
13%
|
|
18th
|
Pastor Maldonado
|
26%
|
|
19th
|
Charles Pic
|
16%
|
|
20th
|
Giedo van der Garde
|
25%
|
|
21st
|
Jules Bianchi
|
18%
|
|
22nd
|
Max Chilton
|
11%
|
Let's see how it does!
For a reference this is how I think they'll finish, stats or no stats!
|
Position
|
Driver
|
|
1st
|
Sebastian
Vettel
|
|
2nd
|
Romain Grosjean
|
|
3rd
|
Mark
Webber
|
|
4th
|
Nico Hulkenberg
|
|
5th
|
Fernando
Alonso
|
|
6th
|
Felipe Massa
|
|
7th
|
Lewis
Hamilton
|
|
8th
|
Jenson Button
|
|
9th
|
Heikki Kovalainen
|
|
10th
|
Nico Rosberg
|
|
11th
|
Sergio
Perez
|
|
12th
|
Paul di Resta
|
|
13th
|
Daniel
Ricciardo
|
|
14th
|
Esteban Gutierrez
|
|
15th
|
Adrian
Sutil
|
|
16th
|
Valtteri Bottas
|
|
17th
|
Jean-Eric
Vergne
|
|
18th
|
Pastor Maldonado
|
|
19th
|
Jules
Bianchi
|
|
20th
|
Giedo van der Garde
|
|
21st
|
Charles
Pic
|
|
22nd
|
Max Chilton
|
